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TL;DR

The probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes of a random variable: \( E[X] = \sum_x x \cdot P(X=x) \) for discrete variables, or \( E[X] = \int x f(x) dx \) for continuous variables.

By Valenke Exam Prep Team·Last updated 2026-06-03

Expected Value

The probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes of a random variable: \( E[X] = \sum_x x \cdot P(X=x) \) for discrete variables, or \( E[X] = \int x f(x) dx \) for continuous variables.

Why it matters for interviews

The most fundamental concept in quant interviews. Every pricing formula, strategy evaluation, and risk metric is built on expectations. Linearity of expectation is the single most powerful problem-solving tool.

Definition and Mathematical Foundation

The probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes of a random variable: \( E[X] = \sum_x x \cdot P(X=x) \) for discrete variables, or \( E[X] = \int x f(x) dx \) for continuous variables.

Expected value satisfies several key properties: linearity (\( E[aX+bY] = aE[X]+bE[Y] \) regardless of dependence), monotonicity (\( X \leq Y \) implies \( E[X] \leq E[Y] \)), and the law of the unconscious statistician (\( E[g(X)] = \int g(x)f(x)dx \)). For discrete variables, the sum may not converge absolutely, in which case the expectation is undefined.

Application in Quantitative Finance

The most fundamental concept in quant interviews. Every pricing formula, strategy evaluation, and risk metric is built on expectations. Linearity of expectation is the single most powerful problem-solving tool.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is linearity of expectation and why is it so useful?
\( E[X+Y] = E[X] + E[Y] \) holds regardless of dependence between X and Y. This lets you decompose complex problems into sums of simpler indicator random variables, each with an easily computed expectation.
How is expected value used in options pricing?
Under risk-neutral pricing, the fair price of a derivative equals the discounted expected payoff under the risk-neutral measure: \( C = e^{-rT} E^Q[\text{payoff}] \).
Can expected value be infinite or undefined?
Yes. The Cauchy distribution has no expected value. The St. Petersburg paradox shows a game with infinite expected value. These edge cases appear in interviews testing mathematical maturity.