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TL;DR

Coupon Collector Problem: Expected draws to complete a set of n types: n * H_n ≈ n ln(n). This concept is essential for quantitative trading interviews and is frequently tested at top firms.

By Valenke Exam Prep Team·Last updated 2026-06-01
Probability

Coupon Collector Problem

Expected draws to complete a set of n types: n * H_n ≈ n ln(n).

The coupon collector problem: Given nn equally likely coupon types, how many draws (with replacement) until you have at least one of each? E[T]=nHn=n(1+12+13++1n)nlnnE[T] = n \cdot H_n = n\left(1 + \frac{1}{2} + \frac{1}{3} + \cdots + \frac{1}{n}\right) \approx n \ln n Derivation via linearity of expectation: After collecting kk distinct types, the probability of getting a new type on the next draw is nkn\frac{n-k}{n}. The expected number of draws to get the next new type is nnk\frac{n}{n-k} (geometric distribution). Summing: E[T]=k=0n1nnk=nj=1n1j=nHnE[T] = \sum_{k=0}^{n-1} \frac{n}{n-k} = n \sum_{j=1}^{n} \frac{1}{j} = n H_n When to use: "How long until all states are visited?" / "Expected time to complete a collection." Also appears in hashing (expected time until first collision ≈ πn/2\sqrt{\pi n / 2} by birthday paradox — different problem but related flavor).

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